NASCAR Power Rankings - Week 20

Honorable Mention: SVG is on fire. He’s the quickest driver in the modern era to reach 4 wins in a career. Unfortunately for Shane, we’re only turning left for the next couple of weeks; and I don’t have faith with him on the ovals.

10. Ross Chastain had an ok day on Sunday, opting for a points day over a good run. He flipped stage 1 and won the stage, getting a well needed playoff point, but that relegated him to 24th on the final pylon. Chastain has 2 podiums at Dover, in 2022 and 2023, and Trackhouse seems to be finding some speed late, so expect a decent run from the 1.

9. Chris Buescher had a good run going until the final restart. What looked to be a top 5 day turned into a 16th place finish. Buescher has 2 top 10s at Dover the past 3 races there, along with a win at another concrete track at Bristol in 2022. Chris needs that first win sooner rather than later, but I don’t see it coming this week.

8. Tyler Reddick seems to be back, but he’s also not winning. Reddick’s best finish at Dover is only 7th, with just one more top 10 to boot, and he’s never led a lap there. Just like the man right behind him in the rankings, I don’t see him winning this week.

7. Chase Briscoe had a very good run at Sonoma. He seemed to be the only one to be able to compete with SVG. He started and finished 2nd, collecting an additional 9 stage points for his troubles. While Briscoe doesn’t have much success at Dover, Martin Truex Jr. did, and that trend seemed to bode well this past week at Sonoma. 

6. Good news and bad news for Kyle Larson fans. Good news: he finally led a lap at Sonoma, his first since spinning out from the lead at Charlotte. The bad? He’s still in a slump, having crossed the line 35th on Sunday after a wreck. It’s not like he looked much better before the wreck, though. Larson’s run very well at Dover in the past, with 7 podiums and a win in 2019, but I have little faith in this race team to put together a winning run right now.

5. Ryan Blaney hit everything but the pace car on Sunday…or rather, everything but the pace car hit him. First, he was shoved off into the dirt by Chase Briscoe, before Chris Buescher got loose under him, sending Blaney up the turn 1 hill and getting him high sided and stuck. By the time he was rolling, Blaney was 2 laps down…before being involved in another wreck with Kyle Larson. It’s hard to dock him, because when he wasn’t getting wrecked, he was running top 5. Blaney has 2 straight top 10s at Dover. He just needs to finish with all 4 wheels on the ground.

4. I was way off on Christopher Bell last week. I said he’d probably finish 4th when he actually crossed the line 5th. A solid run from Bell is exactly what he needs, as he heads to a place where he’s had mixed success. Bell has 2 top 10s in 2022 and 2023, but his next best finish after that is a 21st. Bell needs a few clean races under his belt to gain some momentum before heading into the playoffs.

3. Denny Hamlin looked back to usual self at the road courses. Fortunately, he got his best finish at Sonoma since 2021, but it’s still a mediocre 20th. As Hamlin stated, he’s ready to be back on ovals, and I’m not sure he could pick a better one. He won this race last year, as well as in 2020, and could easily win again this weekend.

2. Finally William Byron seemed to have a good run. Other than SVG and Briscoe, and maybe Elliott, he may have had the best car. He came home a respectable 8th, collecting some stage points and ever so slightly building his points lead. Dover is a mixed bag for Byron, as he has as many sub 15th place finishes as he does top 10s, both with 4. Byron could just as easily finish top 5 as he could finish 30th. 

1. Chase Elliott moves to #1 with another top 5 finish. What seemed to be a questionable call from Alan Gustafson late turned into a 3rd place finish with the help from some late race cautions. Chase Elliott has 10, yes, 10 top 5s at Dover in his career. Take out an engine failure in 2019 and a wreck in 2020, his 2 worst finishes there are an 11th and a 12th. He’s won this race twice, 2018 and 2022, along with 4 additional podiums. Chase Elliott should be the favorite to win this week.