Predicting the 2028 F1 Grid
- Luke Flanagan
- 2 days ago
- 8 min read
Updated: 15 hours ago
by Luke Flanagan
At the time of writing, only four drivers in Formula One are contracted for 2028: Max Verstappen, Pierre Gasly, Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc. That leaves 18 seats still unconfirmed, and while some might be easier to predict, some are more ambivalent. Predicting the future of F1 is never as easy as it seems, but these predictions will attempt to realistically fill the 2028 grid, taking into account the numerous factors that could influence the decisions made by F1's 11 teams.
To start, we'll briefly go through the current drivers who will be out of the sport in this prediction.
No Longer in F1 by 2028
Esteban Ocon
Esteban Ocon has been outperformed by his teammate Ollie Bearman since joining Haas from Alpine in 2025. It's felt like his F1 career has slowly but surely been dwindling for the last few years and I think that it will likely come to an end at the conclusion of this season, or the end of 2027 at the latest.
Sergio Perez & Valtteri Bottas
The experience Perez and Bottas bring from their time at dominant teams is invaluable to a new team starting from scratch, as Cadillac is doing. But they will eventually want to move up the grid and I believe to do so, an all new driver lineup is in their best interest. Despite their experience, I don't believe either will still have the ultimate pace when Cadillac are in a position to be a competitive midfield team.
Alexander Albon
It might seem harsh, but Williams have not had the kind of improvement they've hoped for over the last few years, and a change might be needed to reignite their return to the top. There doesn't seem to be any other realistic options for Albon if Williams was to look elsewhere, so unfortunately he is also out of F1 in this prediction.
Nico Hulkenberg
Since returning to Formula 1 full-time in 2023 for Haas, Nico Hulkenberg has shown glimpses of the potential we always knew he had. While he never got the chance to show what he can do at a top team, he's had a respectable career. The highlight of which being, of course, finally claiming his first podium at Silverstone last year. It would surprise me if he doesn't retire at some point in the next year or two.
Lewis Hamilton
I believe Hamilton will call time on his legendary career in the next couple of years. He will go down as one of the greatest we've ever seen, for some the best. Although it's unlikely, it would be one of the most incredible stories in sports history if Hamilton was to win an 8th title and surpass Michael Schumacher with Ferrari; the team where he won five of his seven championships.
Fernando Alonso
I originally had Alonso still at Aston Martin in this prediction. But while I was writing, he hinted at retiring during the Thursday press conference for the Spanish Grand Prix and I've decided to make a late change. I thought that he would want to have one more season in a front running team before retiring, but it looks like that won't be the case. It's unfortunate because for me, only two championships does not tell the story of how good he really was.
And now, the predictions for the 2028 Formula 1 grid.
Mercedes
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli is going nowhere any time soon. Mercedes have backed him since he was in karts, fast-tracking his path to Formula 1. It was an investment that mirrored McLaren's backing of a young Lewis Hamilton - and one that is being fully justified as Antonelli emerges as an equally generational talent. I expect him to sign a long-term deal with Mercedes in the near future.
George Russell
Despite recent rumours that Mercedes has a performance based clause to replace him, I think that Russell will most likely stay at Mercedes until at least 2028. I can't see him looking to move away just as Mercedes returns to being the clear top team in F1 for the first time since he joined in 2022.
Ferrari
Charles Leclerc
Leclerc has just signed a new contract with Ferrari, keeping him at the team until at least 2029. There are occasional rumours of him looking elsewhere, mostly in reaction to blunders by Ferrari costing him wins or podiums. But more than any other driver in F1, I find it hard to picture him driving for anyone else. It wouldn't surprise me if he spent his entire career at Ferrari.
Ollie Bearman
As soon as Ollie Bearman stepped into the absent Carlos Sainz's Ferrari at the 2024 Saudi Arabia Grand Prix, many were convinced it would not be his last time driving for Ferrari. He has also shown his potential on a few occasions for Haas since joining them full-time for 2025, including a brilliant 4th place finish in Mexico last year. If Hamilton is to retire, Ferrari has a rising star ready to step up at their disposal.
McLaren
Lando Norris
Having just won his first title, there's no reason for Norris to leave McLaren. Even if he did want to leave, he would have to take a step back on the grid rather than forward. After last season, I think it's fair to say Norris is the number one driver at a fairly competitive McLaren, so he won't be going anywhere for now.
Oscar Piastri
There were some whispers last year that McLaren's favourable treatment of Norris may turn Piastri's head, but for now his best bet is staying put. Like Norris, there is no better options available if he was to move away from McLaren.
Red Bull
Max Verstappen
While I do believe Verstappen will leave F1 earlier than most to compete elsewhere, he has a few more years left before actually leaving in my opinion. He will probably continue to race outside of F1 like we saw this year with the Nurburgring 24 Hours. As for the constant Mercedes rumours, I just don't see it happening after all Red Bull has given him - but I'll happily be proved wrong.
Arvid Lindblad
Isack Hadjar has done decently well so far, but I don't see Red Bull changing their attitude towards their second seat anytime soon. Lindblad has had an impressive debut season so far and will surely be given a chance in the top Red Bull team at some point.
Alpine
Pierre Gasly
Gasly has gone massively under the radar in the last couple of seasons, but has started 2026 quite well. As mentioned earlier, he is contracted to Alpine until the end of 2028, but it's difficult to see what will happen with him after that.
Gabriele Mini
Alpine junior Gabriele Mini is the first rookie to appear in this prediction. At the time of writing, the Italian is leading the Formula 2 championship with MP Motorsport and should he go on to win the championship he could be in F1 as early as next year.
Audi
Gabriel Bortoleto
It was clear that when Audi signed Bortoleto for 2025 while they were still Kick Sauber, they saw him as a young prospect who could develop with the team. He had a very impressive debut season with multiple Q3 appearances and a best finish of 6th in Hungary. It's unlikely he'll be leaving any time soon.
Carlos Sainz
Sainz decided to join Williams over Audi for 2025 following his departure from Ferrari. It made sense at the time, given the massive leap into the unknown going to Audi would have been. But Williams have failed to deliver the progress they had hoped for, making Sainz's decision look less wise now. Sainz will surely believe he can still compete at a top team and right now Audi probably look like the team with more potential. Also, the link between Audi and Carlos Sainz Snr. makes me think he will drive for them at some point.
Williams
Luke Browning
Currently competing in Super Formula in Japan, Williams Academy driver Luke Browning finished 4th in Formula 2 last year. He has competed in a few FP1 sessions for Williams, with more planned for this season, and should be a shoo-in for Williams if they are to go with an all new driver lineup as predicted.
Liam Lawson
Out of all the drivers to race for Red Bull's junior team in the last few years, Lawson was the most impressive in my opinion. I thought it was very harsh to drop him from the top team so early in 2025 and despite continuing to outperform the second Red Bull, I think his association with Red Bull will come to an end soon. Depending on how Hadjar performs, he might return to the top team temporarily, but ultimately he will eventually move on. For me, he definitely deserves to stay in F1 and I think Williams would be a great move for him.
Racing Bulls
Isack Hadjar
As mentioned earlier, I don't see the roundabout with the Red Bull second seat ending, so inevitably Hadjar will probably return to Racing Bulls to give someone else a shot at the top team. By 2028, he will probably be in a similar situation that Laswon is currently.
Nikola Tsolov
Currently second in Formula 2, Tsolov will be the first Bulgarian driver in F1 history should he make the step up as predicted. I think he will be the next in a long line of drivers to make it to F1 with the Red Bull Junior Team. Whether he graduates to F1 in 2027 or 2028 may depend on what happens with Liam Lawson.
Aston Martin
Yuki Tsunoda
Tsunoda's long association with Honda may give him a second chance in F1. Tsunoda was supported by the Honda Formula Dream Project in his feeder series career alongside being part of Red Bull's Junior Team. Aston Martin's switch to Honda engines in 2026 could see Honda push for Tsunoda to be the one to replace Fernando Alonso.
Lance Stroll
As much as I think Aston Martin would be much better off with someone else, I tried to be as realistic as possible with this prediction and realistically Stroll is unlikely to lose his seat.
Haas
Rafa Camara
While Haas now has a technical partnership with Toyota, they will continue as a Ferrari customer team until at least 2028. With that being the case, Ferrari will likely continue to use their relationship with Haas to give their academy drivers a start in F1. If Bearman is promoted to Ferrari, reigning F3 champion Rafa Camara is the most suitable FDA driver to replace him. The Brazilian is currently 7th in the F2 championship with Invicta Racing.
Ritomo Miyata
The partnership between Haas and Toyota includes the development of drivers, so we could easily see a Toyota backed driver drive for Haas at some point. Ritomo Miyata has been supported by the Toyota Gazoo Racing Driver Challenge Program for many years and is currently the closest driver in this program to F1, currently driving for Hitech in F2. Miyata took part in a private test for Haas in 2024 as well as two tests for Alpine in 2025.
Cadillac
Colton Herta
In my opinion, it wouldn't make sense for Herta to leave Indycar for F2 if he wasn't guaranteed to be in Formula 1 at some point. He's not exactly set the world alight in F2 so far, but I think he will drive for Cadillac in F1 regardless of how he performs in F2.
Franco Colapinto
With Mini joining Alpine in this prediction, it leaves Franco Colapinto without a seat. There seems to be constant rumours that Flavio Briatore is looking to replace him, so it's probably only a matter of time before he does pull the trigger. Personally, I think Cadillac would be a realistic landing spot for him. Cadillac might like the idea of having two drivers from The Americas and the huge Argentine support that come with Colapinto.
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